TARTIŞMA – Altının gelecekteki fiyatı

Altın fiyatları bugün + Altının gelecekteki fiyatı. 

TARTIŞMA.

Altın tartışması sayfasına hoş geldiniz. Altının fiyatı artmaya devam edecek mi? Ya da altının fiyatı eski zamanlardaki seviyelere mi gerileyecek? Burada görüşleri öğrenebilir ve yorum kısmına kendi görüşlerinizi ekleyebilirsiniz.

Bugün Avrupa’da altının gram fiyatı (24 ayar).

Bu çizelge New York NYMEX ticari mallar pazarındaki 24 ayar altının gerçek zamanlı fiyatını göstermektedir. Takı için hurda altının fiyatı ve altın yatırımı bu fiyatları takip etmektedir ( Kullanılmış altında daha fazla bilgi için “Compro Oro” sayfasına göz atınız).

En önemli soru tabi ki de; bu çizelge gelecekte nasıl olacak?

TARTIŞMA – Altının gelecekteki fiyatı -

Altının fiyatı artmaya devam edecek mi yoksa bu yüksek fiyatlar sadece bir “balon” mudur?

Altının fiyatı son yıllarda inanılmaz hızlı bir artış göstermiş: 2007’de gramı 15 Euro olan altının fiyatı, 2013’te 30-40 Euro’ya yükselmiştir. Altının fiyatını etkileyen birçok faktör vardır, ancak bu dönemdeki göktaşı hızındaki artış daha çok o yıllardaki küresel ekonomik krizlerle açıklanmaktadır. Ekonomik belirsizlikler döneminde, altın her zaman “güvenli bir liman” olarak görülmüştür.

Fakat altın tartışmaları basit bir tezin ötesinde kriz zamanlarında “muhalif” bir yatırımdır.

Altın ‘spekülatörleri’ altın fiyatlarında devam eden bir patlama tartışmasını birkaç nedenle şöyle belirtiyor:

İyi yanları:

  • Merkez Bankası satın alıyor: Bildirilere göre merkez bankası fiyat artırımına, özellikle de Çin satın alımlarına devam ediyor. (Merkez Bankası sadece 2012’de 493 bin kilo gül satın almıştır). Bu eğer devam ederse altın fiyatlarına artan bir baskı koyabilir.
  • ETF satın alıyor: Altının büyük bir çoğunluğu birçok alım-satım ticareti yapan kaynakların (ETF’ler) elinde bulunuyor. ETF’ler tarafından sağlanan erişilebilirlik daha birçok yatırımcının kolayca altın sahibi olabileceği, böylece değerli metale olan talebi artacağı, yani fiyatların artacağı anlamına geliyor.
  • Gelişen Pazar takı talebi: Hint takı ve yatırım pazarı gelişmektedir. Eğer zengin tüketici sınıfı büyümeye devam ederse, bu Çin (ve Brezilya ile Rusya) için doğru olabilir.
  • Güvenli liman: Eğer dünya büyük çaplı risklerle yüzleşmeye devam ederse (Avrupa krizi ya da Çin yavaşlamasındaki gibi), altın ‘güvenli liman’ yatırımı olarak bilindiğinden çekici hale gelecektir.
  • Enflasyon korkusu: Eğer düşük faiz oranları ve yüksek borç seviyelerinin A.B.D. dolarına çok az etki edeceğine inanıyorsanız, o zaman altın gibi dolarla ifade edilen ticari mallardaki enflasyona da inanmalısınız.

Kötü yanları:

  • Altının garantisi yoktur. Örneğin; altın aslında her zaman güvenli bir liman ya da önlem yatırımı değildir. Bu günlerde genellikle altın fiyatları ve diğer sermayeler bir bağıntıda hareket etmektedir.
  • Hiperenflasyon asla hayata geçmedi: Özellikle Euro baskı altında kalmaya devam ettiği sürece Dolar da direnmeye devam ediyor, dolayısıyla altın alma tartışmasındaki Hiperenflasyon korkusu da zayıflıyor.
  • Ekonomik büyüme: İleride hammaddeye ve üretimde kullanılan diğer ticari mallara olan yatırım ilgisini hareket ettirebilecek bir ekonomik büyüme olduğu öngörülüyor.
  • Geniş sermaye sahipleri tedbirli: Goldman Sachs ve Warren Buffet yüksek altın fiyatlarına karşı açıkça dile getirdiler ki, altın kendi başına bir faiz oranı ya da dönüş üretmiyor.

Sizin görüşünüz nedir?

Altının fiyatı gelecek yılda düşecek mi artacak mı? Yorumunuzu isminizi vermeden aşağıya ekleyin. Yorumunuzun gösterilmesi ‘sahte’ olmadığı onaylanana kadar birkaç gün sürebilir.

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